A simplified hypergeometric calculator for Magic statistics
cards in library
total outs
outs needed
draw steps
probability
results
At Least returns the probability of drawing at least the number of outs you want to hit. Exact returns the probability of drawing exactly the number of outs you want to hit. Number Drawn returns how many of an out you are most likely to draw within the given number of draws. Earliest Draw returns the number of draw setps you need to find your outs with the given probability. How Many returns how many outs you need to have in order to draw enough of them with a given probability. Mulligan returns the number of cards in hand after mulliganing to find outs with a given probability.
Examples:
You have 24 lands in your deck, and you want to know the odds of drawing at least 3 in your opening hand.
60, 24, 3, 7
At Least (58.79%)
You have 8 miracles in your deck, and you want to know the odds of drawing none of them in the top 9 cards.
60, 8, 0, 9
Exact (24.89%)
You are running 30 burn spells in your deck, and you want to know how many you can expect by turn 4 (on the draw).
60, 30, 11
Number Drawn (6)
You cast Sphinx's Revelation with 40 cards left in your deck, looking for a specific 2-of, and you want to know the minimum number of cards you'll need to draw to find it at least 60% of the time.
40, 2, 1, 0.60
Earliest Draw (15)
You want to know how many 1-drop mana accelerants you want in your deck to draw one in your opening 7 at least 65% of the time.
60, 1, 7, 0.65
How Many (8)
You have 37 swamps and 3 Pack Rat in your deck, and want to know how many cards you will mulligan to before you draw a Pack Rat more than 85% of the time.